The Saxo Weekly Market Compass 17 November 2025 (recap week of 10–14 November 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

Headlines & introduction

AI momentum, shutdown relief and fiscal worries pulled markets in competing directions. Equities opened the week on strong footing as progress toward ending the US shutdown and dovish signals from parts of the Fed lifted sentiment, led by gains in AI chips and European quality growth. By Friday, firmer yields, more cautious Fed rhetoric and weaker Chinese activity had taken some of the shine off risk assets. Volatility picked up from subdued levels, digital assets slipped as ETFs saw renewed outflows, and commodities quietly competed with equities as 2025 performance leaders. Market pulse: optimism persists, but leadership is narrowing and macro fatigue is creeping in.

Equities

AI chips, healthcare and local European stories drove a two-step week. In the US, early gains were driven by progress on government funding and talk of a possible 50 bp December rate cut. AI names outperformed, with Nvidia up 5.8%, Palantir 8.8%, AMD 4.5% and Micron 6.5%. As the week progressed, healthcare led the Dow above 48,000, with Eli Lilly and AbbVie standing out. By Friday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq was flat and the Dow fell 0.7% as Fed officials pushed back against aggressive easing expectations and AI valuations came under fresh scrutiny.

Europe delivered strong mid-week momentum. The STOXX 50 rose 1.8% and the STOXX 600 1.4%, with the FTSE 100 up 1.1% as Diageo, Commerzbank, Siemens Energy and Novo Nordisk all advanced. Later in the week, local resilience showed through in Adyen, Hermès, Stellantis, Swatch and Richemont. Italian and Iberian banks such as UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Santander and BBVA softened on higher yields. Tech names including SAP, Prosus, Infineon and Nokia also lost momentum after early gains.

Asia reflected the shifting global tone. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng swung sharply—from strength in property, travel and tech names like Samsonite, Xiaomi and Trip.com—to a near 2% drop as weak Chinese factory and retail data hit sentiment. Mainland China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 tracked a similar pattern, while XPeng surged on record deliveries even as SMIC and other chip names came under pressure. Market pulse: high-quality AI, healthcare and select European defensives held up, while China-linked names and banks reminded investors how quickly sentiment can turn.

Volatility

From calm ranges to a cautious repricing ahead of key data. Volatility began the week subdued, with the VIX in the mid-17s and options implying a ±1.1% move into Friday’s expiry. Shutdown resolution and delayed data kept realised volatility contained even as traders positioned for CPI. As agencies prepared to resume reporting, event risk gradually rebuilt.

Later in the week, a more pronounced shift emerged. The VIX moved toward 19–20 as Fed officials signalled caution, and options markets priced a ±1.9% weekly move for the S&P 500. Skew rotated toward richer downside puts, indicating renewed hedging interest after a period of calm. Market pulse: volatility remains orderly but notably more sensitive to policy uncertainty.

Digital assets

Crypto shifted from quiet consolidation to a broad risk reset. Bitcoin held near USD 105k early in the week, with ether above USD 3,500 and selective strength across Solana and XRP. ETF products such as IBIT and ETHA also stabilised as risk appetite improved.

Mid-week, flows softened again. Bitcoin dropped into the high-90k range and ended below USD 95k, while ether retreated into the mid-USD 3,000s. ETF-linked products moved in the same direction, with IBIT near USD 53.5 and ETHA below USD 24, signalling defensive positioning. Most altcoins followed suit rather than offering diversification. Market pulse: crypto continues to mirror macro conditions, with flows still cautious rather than opportunistic.

Fixed income

Yields climbed as markets weighed fiscal looseness against softer data. US Treasuries swung through the week but ultimately moved higher in yield. The 2-year traded near 3.56% and the 10-year close to 4.09% before rising toward 4.15% as renewed fiscal discussions and shutdown resolution took hold. High yield spreads widened modestly, but the credit backdrop remained stable.

Gilts reversed early strength, with the 2-year yield jumping back above 3.8% after reports that the UK may abandon proposed income-tax increases. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield approached post-2008 highs above 1.7% on expectations of additional stimulus, even as shorter maturities softened. Market pulse: fixed income is recalibrating to the prospect of “higher for longer,” not imminent easing.

Commodities

Metals extended their lead as geopolitical shocks whipsawed energy and grains. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index gained roughly 2.7% and remains up more than 15% year-to-date. Gold rose around 4–5% and silver near 10% as fiscal concerns and a return of economic data supported safe-haven demand. Natural gas and soybeans also gained on weather and demand factors.

Oil’s rally faded quickly. Brent spiked after a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port disrupted flows, but both Brent and WTI fell back into familiar ranges as shipping resumed and OPEC+ restored idled capacity. Grains reversed earlier strength after the delayed WASDE report pointed to strong US yields and modest Chinese buying. Market pulse: commodities confirmed their diversification value, though leadership remained concentrated in metals.

Currencies

Mixed safe-haven dynamics as policy and politics drove FX sentiment. The US dollar softened early in the week despite equity volatility, with EURUSD briefly above 1.1650 while USDJPY held near 154–155 as Treasuries failed to act as a traditional haven. Later, the dollar regained ground as markets tempered expectations for rapid Fed cuts.

Sterling stayed under pressure on weak UK labour data and shifting fiscal signals, pushing EURGBP toward 0.8850 and taking GBPCHF to record lows before stabilising. The Swiss franc strengthened on expectations of lower US tariffs, while the Australian dollar swung with risk appetite despite strong employment data. Market pulse: FX traded in ranges but remained highly reactive to evolving policy expectations.

Key takeaways

• AI and healthcare led early equity gains before Fed pushback cooled sentiment.
• European local stories stood out across payments, luxury and banks.
• Volatility moved from subdued to moderately elevated as hedging demand increased.
• Digital assets weakened as ETF flows turned defensive.
• Bond markets grappled with softer data and renewed fiscal concerns.
• Commodities outperformed, led by precious metals.

Looking ahead (17–21 November 2025)

Nvidia, big-box retail and the return of US data will set the tone. Earnings take centre stage this week. Nvidia reports Wednesday in a release viewed as critical for the entire AI complex; options imply a large potential move, and the results will test whether valuations can stretch further. Home Depot opens US retail earnings on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target and TJX on Wednesday and Walmart, Ross Stores and Gap on Thursday. These names collectively provide a deep read on consumer health across discretionary, value and housing-linked categories.

On the macro front, markets will absorb the staggered resumption of US data after the shutdown. The Empire State survey leads Monday’s releases, followed by homebuilder confidence, industrial production and import prices on Tuesday. Existing home sales and possibly housing starts land Wednesday alongside the October FOMC minutes. Thursday brings the Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators and, subject to timing, initial jobless claims. Friday’s final consumer-sentiment index and S&P flash PMIs round out the week.

Fed speakers, including Williams and Goolsbee, will comment on how officials interpret the post-shutdown “data fog.” In Europe, attention remains on how exporters and banks digest higher yields and a softer euro, while Swiss names react to tariff developments. For the UK, gilt markets and sterling will react to the interplay of weak activity indicators and fiscal messaging. In Asia, Chinese activity data and Japan’s multi-decade JGB yield highs remain key. Market pulse: this week is a stress test for the AI trade, the US consumer and the durability of higher-for-longer rates — expect dispersion rather than a single market direction.

Conclusion

Policy, positioning and earnings are converging into a more selective regime. The week reinforced how dependent markets remain on three pillars: AI infrastructure, consumer resilience and confidence in monetary and fiscal management. With the US government reopened and data returning, investors will quickly learn whether the soft-landing narrative still holds. For long-term investors, diversification across regions and asset classes — including commodities — remains prudent. Active investors face a fertile but more demanding environment as volatility and catalysts cluster.

As attention turns to Nvidia’s results and the resumption of US data, the message is clear: stay engaged, but stay disciplined.