News

Global equities are sitting at or near record highs, with the S&P 500 up nearly 10% since late March. The underlying story is fairly clear: earnings are holding up, margins are expanding, and the high-end consumer is still spending. Still, selective strength is doing most of the heavy lifting. Let’s start with the consumer. American…

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Trade ideas for EURJPY, USDCAD, and EURUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 24 April 2026 at 8:00 AM (GMT +3).

EURJPY trade idea

EURJPY analysis shows that the market still provides no clear signals that the uptrend is coming to an end. Although a short-term correction is possible, the current price structure suggests a decline without disrupting the broader bullish scenario. Therefore, buying at current levels does not appear very attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio, while a pullback towards 186.50 creates a more comfortable entry point. Against this backdrop, the baseline scenario is to buy on a dip. Today’s EURJPY trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order at 186.50.

The news backdrop for EURJPY shows an advantage for buyers (55% vs 45%), while the technical picture still suggests further growth after a correction. The trade appears moderately attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective. The first target at 188.00 offers upside potential of 150 pips, and the second target at 188.50 increases the potential profit to 200 pips. The stop-loss at 186.00 limits the risk to 50 pips, corresponding to a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 for the first target and 1:4 for the second.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 186.50
• Target 1: 188.00
• Target 2: 188.50
• Stop-loss: 186.00

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USDCAD trade idea

USDCAD analysis shows that the sell-off has formed signs of exhaustion on the intraday chart. This move is expected to reverse. Buying at current levels does not look very attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio, while a pullback towards 1.3650 provides a more comfortable entry point. In this context, the baseline scenario is to buy after a decline. Today’s USDCAD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order at 1.3650.

The news backdrop for USDCAD shows an advantage for buyers (56% vs 44%). The technical picture points to seller exhaustion and an expected reversal higher. The trade appears moderately attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective. The first target at 1.3750 offers upside potential of 100 pips, while the second target at 1.3775 increases potential profit to 125 pips. The stop-loss at 1.3600 limits the risk to 50 pips, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2 for the first target and 1:2.5 for the second.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 1.3650
• Target 1: 1.3750
• Target 2: 1.3775
• Stop-Loss: 1.3600

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EURUSD trade idea

EURUSD analysis shows that the medium-term bias remains bearish. Rallies should be capped by yesterday’s high. Placing a sell order at current levels would be unfavourable in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. Therefore, the preferred strategy is to sell on pullbacks higher. In this context, the baseline scenario is to sell on rallies. Today’s EURUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Sell Limit order at 1.1750.

The news backdrop for EURUSD shows a clear advantage for sellers (65% vs 35%), confirming a bearish outlook. The technical picture also indicates continued downside after a possible correction. The trade appears attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective. The first target at 1.1630 offers downside potential of 120 pips, while the second target at 1.1600 increases the potential profit to 150 pips. The stop-loss at 1.1780 limits the risk to 30 pips, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4 for the first target and 1:5 for the second.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 1.1750
• Target 1: 1.1630
• Target 2: 1.1600
• Stop-Loss: 1.1780

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This is just a data post.

New Zealand Q1 consumer price index

• +0.9% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%)
• +3.1% vs year ago (expected +2.9%, prior +3.1%)
• Non-tradables +1.1% q/q
• Non-tradables +3.5% y/y

A shorthand way of thinking about 'non tradeables' is domestically generated inflation.

I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. ADED:

• result underscores the stickiness of inflation

NZD jumped:

• Iran foreign minister: The Strait of Hormuz is completely open
• Trump thanks Iran for opening the Strait
• Trump says he expects Iran war deal "in a day or two"
• Trump says US naval blockage of Iran should be halted "very quickly"
• Trump says US will get nuclear dust and that Israel is now prohibited from bombing Lebanon
• Iran Parliamentary Committee Spokesman: We will not allow uranium to leave the country
• Senior Iranian official: Significant differences remain, serious talks required
• US considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal - report
• Fed's Daly: Businesses cautiously optimistic
• Fed's Waller: Job market break even rate now likely around zero
• BoE’s Pill challenges "wait-and-see" status quo, urges proactive inflation defense
• Canada March housing starts 235.9K vs 255.0K expected

Markets:

You can't shake the feeling that there will be at least one more twist in this saga but all signs were positive on Friday as Iran announced the Strait was reopening and Trump said a deal is coming in a day or two. That led to a $10 drop in oil prices and the corresponding price action with bond yields down 6-8 bps late and the Nasdaq up for a 13th straight session.

The US dollar sold off and the euro rose as high as 1.1847.

Notably though, the US dollar decline didn't last and completely reversed later. The moves in stocks and bonds moderated. That could be a sign of creeping doubt, profit taking on the 'peace trade' or something else. Very late in the day there was a report about ships being turned away in Hormuz and some doubts about Trump's claims, including Iran's uranium leaving the country. There were also an incredible amount of leaks, so many that it seemed more like a communication strategy than anything genuine.

The fear is that Iran's negotiators might not be on the same page as the IRGC and that Trump's over the top enthusiasm today was to find out if those negotiators even have the power to dictate a deal to a reluctant IRGC. There was also a report that Israel's Netanyahu was shocked by the claim that bombing on Lebanon will stop.

Could this whole thing be an effort to suss out if there's division in Iran? Or is that just paranoia after several recent weekend where Trump and JD Vance delivered big surprises? It's hard to shake the sense there will be at least one more twist in this and that the risk-reward is now badly tilted towards disappointment. At the same time, would Trump do all this talking only to pivot immediately back to attacks?

Time will tell but the latest WSJ leak said an in person meeting was tentatively scheduled for Monday so that will be something to watch for but the main thing will be if ships actually keep moving through Hormuz, as some already have.

The US producer price index (PPI), which measures inflation before it hits consumers, surged in March to 4.0% year-on-year.