Markets have been closely monitoring developments regarding trade-related uncertainties, and therefore it was clearly quite welcome news on sentiment when the White House showcased the US / UK trade deal along with more positive comments from President Trump on US-China tariffs. Several big earnings releases hit throughout the week, including Rheinmetall and Disney reporting strong figures vs estimates, whereas Palantir failed to meet lofty expectations – declining 12% despite an increase in full-year forecast. The Bank of England cut policy rate 25bps & Federal Reserve kept rates steady, meanwhile Bitcoin surpassed $100k again and Google might be facing elevated competition from AI. Read more in this week’s key stories below:

Rheinmetall grows with EU military spend Europe’s push for military rearmament bolstered demand for Rheinmetall’s combat vehicles, artillery and munitions with the firm’s first quarter earnings beating estimates with operating profit jumping +49% YoY. The company reaffirmed its full year forecast of +25% to +30% sales growth. Riding the wave of Europe's defence boom

Disney Magic Disney’s quarterly earnings results beat estimates from strong performance in experience segment (parks) & significant subscriber growth in Disney+ streaming service. The company also nearly doubled their annual growth expectation to 16%, while CEO Bob Iger acknowledge “confident but cautious” view as broader economic uncertainties and their implications still linger. Disney shines bright as streaming and parks outperform expectations

Could AI shake Google’s core business? On May 7^th shares in Google-parent Alphabet declined more than 7% after Apple executive Eddy Cue’s testimony confirmed Safari search volumes are falling as users shift to AI tools like ChatGPT. Investors were quick to react to the comments, as search remains Alphabet’s core business, contributing over 50% of total revenues. Alphabet’s Kodak moment?

Palantir’s lofty valuation Palantir revenue for the first quarter jumped 39%, beating analyst’s estimates with the company also raising its full year revenue forecast. This wasn’t sufficient to meet incredibly high expectations and shares sold off by -12%. Most of this was regained by the end of the week and general risk sentiment grew. Buy the dip or brace for a reset?

Next week markets will adjust to any developments from initial US-China trade talks. Q1 company earnings highlights include Sea Ltd, Softbank, JD.com, Nu Holdings (Tues). Tencent, Cisco Systems, Sony (Weds). Alibaba, Walmart, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Mitsubishi Financial, Deere, Applied Materials (Thurs). Richemont (Fri). Key data announcements include German May ZEW economic sentiment, US Apr CPI (Tuesday), EU & UK Q1 GDP, US Apr Retail Sales, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Thursday), Japan Q1 GDP, US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).

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Weekly market recap and what's ahead

28 April 2025  (recap 21 to 25 April 2025)

Key Takeaways

• Equities rebounded sharply on US-China trade optimism and strong tech earnings.
• VIX dropped to 26.47 as volatility eased significantly.
• Bitcoin stabilized around $93,000; strong ETF inflows supported sentiment.
• US 10-year yield traded near 4.3% amid rate cut expectations.
• Gold corrected from record highs; oil prices volatile on OPEC+ tensions.
• USD regained strength, but FX markets remained sensitive to trade headlines.

Markets recovered strongly from earlier losses as President Trump softened tariff rhetoric and corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and others beat expectations. Volatility declined sharply, cryptocurrencies remained resilient, and bond yields signaled expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Equities

Markets opened the week weakly on April 21 after Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, with the S&P 500 down -2.36% and Nasdaq 100 down -2.58% (April 21). Sentiment reversed sharply by April 22 as Tesla (+5.1%) and 3M (+8.1%) led gains, helping the S&P 500 rally +2.51% (April 22). The rally continued with SAP (+10.6%) boosting European markets on April 23. Alphabet (+5%) and Nvidia (+1.1%) lifted tech sentiment after earnings on April 24, while Intel fell -5.7% on weak forecasts.

Volatility

The VIX surged early in the week, reflecting fears over Fed independence (April 21), but reversed sharply lower as optimism over trade developments improved. It closed at 26.47 on April 25, down nearly 7% from the day prior, while VIX1D and VIX9D indicators also moderated.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin hovered around $93,387 on April 22 and stabilized near $93,350 by April 25. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. Sentiment improved after Strategy’s $555 million Bitcoin purchase and continued institutional ETF inflows. Crypto-related equities like Coinbase (+5%) showed resilience.

Fixed Income

Bond yields were initially volatile, with the US 10-year rising to 4.42% (April 21) before easing to 4.3% by April 25. Fed speakers suggested a willingness to cut rates if tariffs hurt the jobs market. The 2s10s curve flattened slightly as the market priced in more aggressive easing.

Commodities

Gold surged to a record near $3,500 early in the week before correcting to below $3,300 (April 25) amid improved risk appetite. Crude oil swung with OPEC+ tensions but rebounded later in the week as China reiterated economic support. Natural gas tumbled 7.5% on storage build and mild weather.

Currencies

The USD initially weakened but recovered as risk sentiment improved. EURUSD tested 1.14 but fell back toward 1.13 by April 25. USDJPY rose above 143.60 before finding resistance. Markets remained highly sensitive to tariff news and Fed policy expectations.

Looking Ahead (28 April to 2 May 2025)

• Monday: Schneider Electric, Domino’s, F5 Networks earnings.
• Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Booking, Pfizer, Honeywell, Starbucks, PayPal earnings.
• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Caterpillar earnings.
• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Mastercard earnings.
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell earnings; April Nonfarm Payrolls; PCE inflation report.
• Key Macro: Trump's 100th day in office; US Q1 GDP; Consumer Confidence; ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Markets will be driven by earnings heavyweights and crucial macro data, with volatility likely around jobs and inflation reports.

Related Quick Takes

• Market Quick Take - 22 April 2025
• Market Quick Take - 23 April 2025
• Market Quick Take - 24 April 2025
• Market Quick Take - 25 April 2025
• Market Quick Take - 28 April 2025