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US 30 forecast: the index has entered a downtrend amid rising geopolitical tensions

Posted on: Jan 22 2026

The US 30 correction has turned into a decline due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the EU and the US. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: US industrial production rose by 0.4% month-on-month in December compared to November 2025
  • Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

US industrial production increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of +0.1% and matching the previous reading of +0.4%. This result points to stronger-than-expected momentum in the real sector and confirms the resilience of industrial output. For the US stock market overall, this is a constructive signal, as it reduces concerns about a sharp economic slowdown and supports expectations for revenues and profits, especially in cyclical segments tied to manufacturing, transportation, and investment demand. Importantly, the indicator did not accelerate compared to the previous month, lowering the risk that markets interpret the data as a sign of overheating.

For the US 30, stronger industrial production supports expectations for business activity, order flows, and logistics, which is favourable for industrial issuers and cyclically sensitive companies. At the same time, a potential rise in bond yields can be a mixed factor for the financial sector: it may improve net interest income, but also restrain overall market valuations. In practice, unless rate expectations are sharply revised, the balance of factors typically leans towards a moderately positive impact on the US 30. However, the Greenland issue and the EU–US confrontation currently offset much of the macroeconomic upside.

US industrial production m/m: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has entered a downward phase, breaking below the key support level around 48,980.0. The resistance level has shifted to 49,625.0. The index slipped below levels seen at the beginning of the year, with the nearest downside target at 47,685.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 48,980.0, the index could fall to 47,685.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 49,980.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 50,080.0
US 30 technical analysis for 21 January 2026

Summary

US industrial production at +0.4%, significantly above expectations, is a positive signal for US equities as it confirms resilient economic activity. For the US 30, the impact will likely be moderately supportive via its cyclical components, although upside potential may be partially capped by interest-rate market reactions. The nearest downside target could be 47,685.0.

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US to cut NATO command roles as alliance tensions intensify

Posted on: Jan 21 2026

The US plans modest but symbolic cuts to NATO command staffing, fuelling fresh unease in Europe over Washington’s strategic priorities.

Washington Post had the info.

Summary:

  • US plans to cut around 200 positions from NATO command and intelligence bodies.

  • Intelligence, special operations and maritime centres are among those affected.

  • Reductions will mainly occur through attrition rather than recalls.

  • Move aligns with US focus on the Western Hemisphere.

  • Timing risks amplifying European anxiety over US commitment to NATO.

The United States plans to reduce the number of personnel it assigns to several key NATO command and intelligence bodies, a move that is likely to sharpen European concerns over Washington’s long-term commitment to the alliance, according to officials familiar with the matter.

US and European sources said the Trump administration has signalled to some European capitals that it will eliminate roughly 200 US positions from NATO entities involved in military planning, intelligence coordination and special operations. The cuts are expected to affect bodies including the UK-based NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre, the Allied Special Operations Forces Command in Brussels, and Portugal-based STRIKFORNATO, which oversees certain maritime operations.

The changes are expected to be implemented largely through attrition, with the US declining to replace personnel as they rotate out of their posts, rather than through immediate recalls. About 400 US personnel are currently assigned to the NATO bodies affected, implying a reduction of roughly half.

While the drawdown is small relative to the overall US military footprint in Europe, which totals around 80,000 personnel, the timing is politically sensitive. The alliance is already navigating one of its most diplomatically fraught periods in decades, amid renewed uncertainty over US strategic priorities.

Officials said the staffing changes broadly align with the administration’s stated intention to reallocate military resources toward the Western Hemisphere. However, the move risks reinforcing perceptions in Europe that Washington is scaling back its operational engagement within NATO’s core structures.

The decision comes against a backdrop of rising tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s revived push to acquire Greenland, an unprecedented prospect of territorial pressure within the alliance. Trump has also recently reposted commentary on social media describing NATO as a threat to the United States, further unsettling European capitals.

A NATO official sought to play down the impact, saying adjustments to US staffing levels are routine and noting that overall US troop levels in Europe remain elevated. Nonetheless, the symbolic weight of the cuts is likely to resonate far beyond their immediate military effect.

Also, ps. Trump is speaking in Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026

  • a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos from 13:30–14:15 GMT

He spoke Tuesday at a press conference.

  • investingLive Americas market news wrap: US stock markets battered, yields rise
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US Tech forecast: the index shows weak growth

Posted on: Jan 17 2026

The US Tech index continues to trade in an uptrend, but a new all-time high has not yet been reached. The US Tech forecast for the next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: the US PPI rose by 0.2% in December compared to November
  • Market impact: the current data is moderately negative for the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, fully in line with market expectations and slowing noticeably from the previous reading of +0.6%. For equity markets, such dynamics are generally perceived as moderately favourable, since the PPI is an early indicator of price pressure in supply chains, and its slowdown reduces the risk of accelerating consumer inflation in the coming months. As a result, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain tight monetary conditions decreases.

US producer price inflation m/m: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/producer-price-inflation-mom

Since the figure came in exactly in line with the consensus, the immediate market reaction may be restrained. Investors typically price in expected data in advance, and further price movements are often driven by report details (the structure of price changes across categories), accompanying macroeconomic releases, and Fed officials’ rhetoric. Nevertheless, the slowdown compared to the previous month contributes to more comfortable inflation expectations and reduces the risk of sharp upward revisions to the interest-rate path.

US Tech technical analysis

For the US Tech index, the impact is typically more pronounced than for the broader market, as the technology sector is more sensitive to changes in yields and the discount rate. If the PPI slowdown is interpreted as a factor supporting lower or stable Treasury yields, this will create favourable conditions for the revaluation of growth companies and support the performance of the technology index. In addition, more moderate producer-level price pressure may be seen as an improvement in cost conditions for some companies, although in the technology sector, the direct impact of the PPI on costs is often less significant than its indirect effect via rates and overall financial conditions.

US Tech technical analysis for 16 January 2026

The US Tech index entered an uptrend. The nearest resistance level has formed at 25,875.0, while the support level has shifted to 25,410.0. Prices are moving higher towards resistance, with a high probability of a breakout. The upside target could be at 26,265.0.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 25,410.0 support level could send the index to 25,095.0
  • Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 25,875.0 resistance level could drive the index to 26,265.0

Summary

The PPI release, which was in line with expectations but slower than last month, is a moderately positive signal for the US equity market and potentially even more favourable for the US Tech Index. However, the scale of the reaction is likely to remain limited, as the figure came out in line with forecasts, and will depend on yield movements and subsequent inflation signals. The nearest upside target could be 26,265.0.

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