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The US 500 index is undergoing a correction that may lead to a breakout above the resistance level and a reversal towards an uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US Federal Reserve balance sheet stands at 6.596 trillion USD
• Market impact: the figures are generally positive for the equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

News about the potential end of the government shutdown is easing political uncertainty and typically supports risk appetite in the short term. The resumption of macroeconomic data releases and clarity in the fiscal process reduce the uncertainty premium and may provide a short-term boost to cyclical sectors. However, even after the shutdown ends, the high level of government borrowing will continue to support Treasury yields. Combined with the ongoing balance sheet reduction, this limits revaluation potential for equities and keeps the market sensitive to Treasury auctions and inflation data.

For the US 500, this creates a mixed picture. In the coming days, growth is likely in companies that benefit from improving economic expectations – some industrial issuers, part of the financial sector, and durable goods producers with steady demand. At the same time, large growth stocks and unprofitable tech developers may react more weakly due to persistent pressure from high rates and elevated capital costs.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index is undergoing a correction after a decline, with the support level at 6,550.0 and the nearest resistance at 6,760.0. The price is rising towards the resistance level and could break above it, reversing the trend upwards. The next target for potential growth is around 6,865.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,550.0 support level could send the index down to 6,445.0
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,760.0 support level could propel the index to 6,865.0

Summary

For the US 500, the baseline scenario suggests a volatile sideways movement with limited valuation expansion, where performance will depend primarily on earnings and cash flows. A sustained uptrend would require either a slowdown in the Fed’s liquidity withdrawal or clear signs of easing inflation, which could push yields lower. If statements confirming the imminent end of the shutdown are followed by favourable inflation and wage data, the index could gain further on improved sentiment. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may rise towards 6,865.0.

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EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1540 extended higher last week but upside is capped well below 1.1778 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected. Break of 1.1540 will resume the decline from 1.1917 and target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, […]

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September 2025 Machinery Orders -0.9% m/m

• expected +0.5%, prior -4.6%

+1.6% y/y

• expected +4.8%, prior +4.9%

more to come

The US Tech index rally continues, with the benchmark hitting a new all-time high ahead of US labour market data. The US Tech forecast for the coming week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.734% at the latest auction
• Market impact: for the technology sector, this development has a negative effect

US Tech fundamental analysis

The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.734%, up from 4.651% at the previous auction. The increase indicates that investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-term securities, reflecting expectations of prolonged high interest rates or elevated inflation risks. A rise in long-term yields is typically viewed as a sign of tighter financial conditions.

This means the cost of capital is rising, while the relative attractiveness of equities versus bonds is declining, especially amid uncertainty about future monetary policy. Higher yields may also signal reduced demand for government debt, adding to financial market volatility. Overall, this creates a moderately negative backdrop for the US stock market, as higher yields increase the appeal of risk-free assets and reduce the present valuation of companies’ future profits.

US Tech technical analysis

The technology sector, represented by the US Tech index, is particularly sensitive to movements in long-term rates. Companies in this sector tend to have high valuation multiples and rely on future earnings, making them vulnerable when discount rates increase. Rising rates also raise financing costs for innovative and capital-intensive projects. Consequently, the rise in 30-year bond yields, especially near multi-year highs, may reduce investor appetite for tech stocks and trigger a mild correction in the US Tech index.

The US Tech index has hit a new all-time high, forming a resistance level at 25,173.0 and a new support area at 24,795.0. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 25,380.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,795.0 support level could push the index to 24,215.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 25,173.0 resistance level could drive the index to 25,380.0

Summary

The US Tech index continues to set new all-time highs. The rise in 30-year Treasury yields reflects expectations of sustained high interest rates, which exerts pressure on equities, particularly in the technology sector. The index may experience short-term declines or consolidation due to higher capital costs and reduced risk appetite. Upcoming US labour market data, expected later today, could influence further dynamics. The next upside target could be at 25,380.0.

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The Euro has taken a beating on Monday, following the unexpected resignation of France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.