News

We have a massive slate of mega-cap tech, critical industrial bellwethers, and the titans of energy all reporting next week.

The key theme will be justification. Valuations are stretched in the tech sector, and the market needs to see not just beat-and-raise quarters, but clear evidence that AI capex is going to translate into revenue. On the macro side, we are looking for signs of cracking in the consumer data from the credit card giants and shipping volumes from the logistics heavyweights.

Monday

Monday is relatively light, giving markets a moment to position before the volatility ramps up.

• Before Open: We get a look at the European consumer with Ryanair. Watch their guidance on fares; if they are softening, it is a deflationary signal. Baker Hughes will give us early insight into energy services demand before the oil majors report later in the week.

• After Close: The focus shifts to industrials and materials. Nucor and Steel Dynamics are the ones to watch here. Steel demand is a proxy for real economic activity—construction and manufacturing. If their outlook is gloomy, it sets a cautious tone for the GDP components. AGNC will also be interesting for the mortgage-REIT space and interest rate sensitivity.

Tuesday

Tuesday is where the macro picture comes into focus. We have diverse sectors reporting that act as pulse checks for the broader economy.

• Before Open: This is a heavy morning. UPS is the critical report here. As a global shipping bellwether, their volume data tells us exactly what is happening with global trade and consumer demand. GM will update us on the auto sector—keep an eye on their EV margins and inventory levels. We also have UnitedHealthcare, which acts as a massive weight in the Dow and S&P; healthcare costs have been a sticky inflation component, so their commentary matters. Boeing is also on the docket; expect volatility there as they navigate production hurdles.

• After Close: All eyes will be on Texas Instruments. They are the first major semiconductor name to report this week and arguably the most important for the broad cycle. They sell chips into everything—autos, industrial, appliances. If they call a bottom in the cycle, that is bullish for global growth. Microsoft is listed on some calendars for Tuesday, but looking at this schedule, the heavy tech hitters seem clustered mid-week (Note: double-check confirming Microsoft is Wednesday on this specific graphic). On this graphic, Tuesday PM features Starbucks (correction: that is Seagate and Packaging Corp, the Starbucks logo is not there, it is Seagate, Manhattan, etc). Manhattan Associates is a good read on supply chain tech.

Wednesday: The Main Event

This is the day that will likely define the week's price action. The volume of market cap reporting on Wednesday is staggering.

• Before Open: ASML is the key. They make the machines that make the chips. If their bookings are weak, the entire AI-hardware narrative takes a hit. AT&T will be a yield play and a check on the telecom consumer. Boeing (checking graphic again—Boeing is Tuesday, Wednesday has General Dynamics). General Dynamics will be relevant for the defense sector amid geopolitical tensions.

• After Close: This is the fireworks show. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla all reporting in the same window. We will have more on those closer to the releases:

  • Microsoft: The market wants to see AI revenue acceleration in Azure/Copilot. If they miss on cloud growth, the whole sector could re-rate.

  • Meta: It is all about ad spend and efficiency. Zuckerberg's "Year of Efficiency" was a hit; now they need to show growth.

  • Tesla: Margins, margins, margins. The EV price war has hurt them. Guidance on deliveries and the Cybertruck ramp will drive the stock.

  • IBM and ServiceNow also report, adding more data points to enterprise software demand.

Thursday:

If Wednesday is about cloud and AI, Thursday is about the consumer and global hardware.

• Before Open: We get a massive read on the consumer wallet. Mastercard will tell us if spending is slowing down. We also have Comcast and Blackstone. Caterpillar is the other major one here—often seen as the ultimate global growth barometer. If CAT is warning on orders, the "soft landing" narrative gets harder to defend.

• After Close: Apple takes center stage. The China story is the biggest risk here. Traders will be parsing every word regarding iPhone sales in Asia. Visa also reports, complementing the Mastercard data from the morning. If both credit giants show rising delinquencies or slowing transaction volumes, the recession bears will come out of hibernation.

Friday:

We wrap up the week with the energy giants and some final financial names.

• Before Open: It is Big Oil day. ExxonMobil and Chevron report. With oil prices hovering in a defined range, the focus will be on capital discipline and buybacks. Cash flow should be strong, but production guidance is the variable. Chevron has had some operational hiccups recently, so execution is key. American Express is the final piece of the consumer puzzle; their premium customer base usually holds up better, so any weakness there is a significant red flag.

The US plans modest but symbolic cuts to NATO command staffing, fuelling fresh unease in Europe over Washington’s strategic priorities.

Washington Post had the info.

Summary:

• US plans to cut around 200 positions from NATO command and intelligence bodies.

• Intelligence, special operations and maritime centres are among those affected.

• Reductions will mainly occur through attrition rather than recalls.

• Move aligns with US focus on the Western Hemisphere.

• Timing risks amplifying European anxiety over US commitment to NATO.

The United States plans to reduce the number of personnel it assigns to several key NATO command and intelligence bodies, a move that is likely to sharpen European concerns over Washington’s long-term commitment to the alliance, according to officials familiar with the matter.

US and European sources said the Trump administration has signalled to some European capitals that it will eliminate roughly 200 US positions from NATO entities involved in military planning, intelligence coordination and special operations. The cuts are expected to affect bodies including the UK-based NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre, the Allied Special Operations Forces Command in Brussels, and Portugal-based STRIKFORNATO, which oversees certain maritime operations.

The changes are expected to be implemented largely through attrition, with the US declining to replace personnel as they rotate out of their posts, rather than through immediate recalls. About 400 US personnel are currently assigned to the NATO bodies affected, implying a reduction of roughly half.

While the drawdown is small relative to the overall US military footprint in Europe, which totals around 80,000 personnel, the timing is politically sensitive. The alliance is already navigating one of its most diplomatically fraught periods in decades, amid renewed uncertainty over US strategic priorities.

Officials said the staffing changes broadly align with the administration’s stated intention to reallocate military resources toward the Western Hemisphere. However, the move risks reinforcing perceptions in Europe that Washington is scaling back its operational engagement within NATO’s core structures.

The decision comes against a backdrop of rising tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s revived push to acquire Greenland, an unprecedented prospect of territorial pressure within the alliance. Trump has also recently reposted commentary on social media describing NATO as a threat to the United States, further unsettling European capitals.

A NATO official sought to play down the impact, saying adjustments to US staffing levels are routine and noting that overall US troop levels in Europe remain elevated. Nonetheless, the symbolic weight of the cuts is likely to resonate far beyond their immediate military effect.

Also, ps. Trump is speaking in Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026

• a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos from 13:30–14:15 GMT

He spoke Tuesday at a press conference.

• investingLive Americas market news wrap: US stock markets battered, yields rise

Just posting this data, I'll be back with more separately on this.

Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) -6.4%

• expected +4.9%, prior +12.5%

(MoM) (Nov) -11.0%

• expected -5.1%, prior 7.0%

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Private sector machinery orders (excluding ship and power equipment)

• A guide to business investment (capex) for the months ahead (6 to 9 months out)

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